David Verbera's Blog

I read this article today and wanted to share it with everyone.  It comes from an online leading real estate news publication:

Friday, June 12, 2009

Definite signs of a false recovery
Interest rates stabilized at the conclusion of $65 billion in new Treasury borrowing this week, mostly by sales of long-term bonds.“Stability” is a relative term: All long-term rates have risen roughly 1 percent in just six weeks, and a further run-up will undercut any economic recovery. The question is whether current prospects for recovery justify this rate-surge, or is this surge already unsustainable? If the latter, what’s the chance for a reversal, especially in mortgages? More »  http://www.inman.com/buyers-sellers/columnists/loubarnes/definite-signs-a-false-recovery 

What’s your opinion?

Nobody knows!  That’s right, nobody really knows when the bottom will hit as far as real estate prices.  The best way to see a change or a trend is to track the data.  For example, you may want to track the data in a certain zip code of interest to you.  Look for the number of active listings vs pending vs actual closed escrows.  Keep track of the number of bank owned, REO”s, properties vs short sales vs just regular sales.  If you track this information, along with list price vs actual sales price, you will begin to see trends.  If you have them on a line graph you will see them even more clearly as the graph lines begin to change directions.  Usually a 3-6 month trend will indicate a change in the market.  So you, along with the experts, will know when the bottom hit about 3-6 months after it hit.  That is just the way it is unless you have that magic ball we all are looking for.